I. Introduction
The uniform amount and pricing multipliers are derived from:
• A model (the Statistical Model) that estimates the probability that a Risk Category I institution will be downgraded to a composite CAMELS rating of 3 or worse within one year;
• Minimum and maximum downgrade probability cutoff values, based on data from June 30, 2008, that will determine which small institutions will be charged the minimum and maximum initial base assessment rates applicable to Risk Category I;
• The minimum initial base assessment rate for Risk Category I, equal to 12 basis points, and
• The maximum initial base assessment rate for Risk Category I, which is four basis points higher than the minimum rate.
II. The Statistical Model
The Statistical Model is defined in equations 1 and 3 below.
Equation 1
Downgrade(0,1)i,t = β0 + β1 (Leverage ratioT) + β2 (Loans past due 30 to 89 days ratioi,t) + β3 (Nonperforming asset ratioi,t) + β4 (Net loan charge-off ratioi,t) + β5 (Net income before taxes ratioi,t) + β6 (Adjusted brokered deposit ratioi,t) + β7 (Weighted average CAMELS component ratingi,t) where Downgrade(01)i,t (the dependent variable—the event being explained) is the incidence of downgrade from a composite rating of 1 or 2 to a rating of 3 or worse during an on-site examination for an institution i between 3 and 12 months after time t. Time t is the end of a year within the multi-year period over which the model was estimated (as explained below). The dependent variable takes a value of 1 if a downgrade occurs and 0 if it does not.
The explanatory variables (regressors) in the model are six financial ratios and a weighted average of the “C,” “A,” “M,” “E” and “L” component ratings. The six financial ratios included in the model are:
• Leverage ratio
• Loans past due 30-89 days/Gross assets
• Nonperforming assets/Gross assets
• Net loan charge-offs/Gross assets
• Net income before taxes/Risk-weighted assets
• Brokered deposits/domestic deposits above the 10 percent threshold, adjusted for the asset growth rate factor
Table A.1 defines these six ratios along with the weighted average of CAMELS component ratings. The adjusted brokered deposit ratio (Bi,T) is calculated by multiplying the ratio of brokered deposits to domestic deposits above the 10 percent threshold by an asset growth rate factor that ranges from 0 to 1 as shown in Equation 2 below. The asset growth rate factor (Ai,T) is calculated by subtracting 0.4 from the four-year cumulative gross asset growth rate (expressed as a number rather than as a percentage), adjusted for mergers and acquisitions, and multiplying the remainder by 31⁄3 . The factor cannot be less than 0 or greater than 1.
Equation 2
The component rating for sensitivity to market risk (the “S” rating) is not available for years prior to 1997. As a result, and as described in Table A.1, the Statistical Model is estimated using a weighted average of five component ratings excluding the “S” component. Delinquency and non-accrual data on government guaranteed loans are not available before 1993 for Call Report filers and before the third quarter of 2005 for TFR filers. As a result, and as also described in Table A.1, the Statistical Model is estimated without deducting delinquent or past-due government guaranteed loans from either the loans past due 30-89 days to gross assets ratio or the nonperforming assets to gross assets ratio. Reciprocal deposits are not presently reported in the Call Report or TFR. As a result, and as also described in Table A.1, the Statistical Model is estimated without deducting reciprocal deposits from brokered deposits in determining the adjusted brokered deposit ratio.
Table A.1—Definitions of Regressors
| Regressor | Description |
|---|---|
| Leverage ratio (%) | Tier 1 capital for Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) divided by adjusted average assets based on the definition for prompt corrective action. |
| Loans Past Due 30-89 Days/Gross Assets (%) | Total loans and lease financing receivables past due 30 through 89 days and still accruing interest divided by gross assets (gross assets equal total assets plus allowance for loan and lease financing receivable losses and allocated transfer risk). |
| Nonperforming Assets/Gross Assets (%) | Sum of total loans and lease financing receivables past due 90 or more days and still accruing interest, total nonaccrual loans and lease financing receivables, and other real estate owned divided by gross assets. |
| Net Loan Charge-Offs/Gross Assets (%) | Total charged-off loans and lease financing receivables debited to the allowance for loan and lease losses less total recoveries credited to the allowance to loan and lease losses for the most recent twelve months divided by gross assets. |
| Net Income before Taxes/Risk-Weighted Assets (%) | Income before income taxes and extraordinary items and other adjustments for the most recent twelve months divided by risk-weighted assets. |
| Adjusted brokered deposit ratio (%) | Brokered deposits divided by domestic deposits less 0.10 multiplied by the asset growth rate factor (which is the term Ai,T as defined in equation 2 above) that ranges between 0 and 1. |
| Weighted Average of C, A, M, E and L Component Ratings | The weighted sum of the “C,” “A,” “M,” “E” and “L” CAMELS components, with weights of 28 percent each for the “C” and “M” components, 22 percent for the “A” component, and 11 percent each for the “E” and “L” components. (For the regression, the “S” component is omitted.) |
The financial variable regressors used to estimate the downgrade probabilities are obtained from quarterly reports of condition (Reports of Condition and Income and Thrift Financial Reports). The weighted average of the “C,” “A,” “M,” “E” and “L” component ratings regressor is based on component ratings obtained from the most recent bank examination conducted within 24 months before the date of the report of condition.
The Statistical Model uses ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to estimate downgrade probabilities. The model is estimated with data from a multi-year period (as explained below) for all institutions in Risk Category I, except for institutions established within five years before the date of the report of condition.
The OLS regression estimates coefficients, βj for a given regressor j and a constant amount, β0, as specified in equation 1. As shown in equation 3 below, these coefficients are multiplied by values of risk measures at time T, which is the date of the report of condition corresponding to the end of the quarter for which the assessment rate is computed. The sum of the products is then added to the constant amount to produce an estimated probability, diT, that an institution will be downgraded to 3 or worse within 3 to 12 months from time T.
The risk measures are financial ratios as defined in Table A.1, except that: (1) The loans past due 30 to 89 days ratio and the nonperforming asset ratio are adjusted to exclude the maximum amount recoverable from the U.S. Government, its agencies or government-sponsored agencies, under guarantee or insurance provisions; (2) the weighted sum of six CAMELS component ratings is used, with weights of 25 percent each for the “C” and “M” components, 20 percent for the “A” component, and 10 percent each for the “E,” “L,” and “S” components; and (3) reciprocal deposits are deducted from brokered deposits in determining the adjusted brokered deposit ratio.
Equation 3
diT = β0 + β1 (Leverage ratioiT) + β2 (Loans past due 30 to 89 days ratioiT) + β3 (Nonperforming asset ratioiT) + β4 (Net loan charge-off ratioiT) + β5 (Net income before taxes ratioiT) + β6 (Adjusted brokered deposit ratioiT) + β7 (Weighted average CAMELS component ratingiT)
III. Minimum and Maximum Downgrade Probability Cutoff Values
The pricing multipliers are also determined by minimum and maximum downgrade probability cutoff values, which will be computed as follows:
• The minimum downgrade probability cutoff value will be the maximum downgrade probability among the twenty-five percent of all small insured institutions in Risk Category I (excluding new institutions) with the lowest estimated downgrade probabilities, computed using values of the risk measures as of June 30, 2008.12 The minimum downgrade probability cutoff value is 0.0182.
1As used in this context, a “new institution” means an institution that has been chartered as a bank or thrift for less than five years.
2For purposes of calculating the minimum and maximum downgrade probability cutoff values, institutions that have less than $100,000 in domestic deposits are assumed to have no brokered deposits.
• The maximum downgrade probability cutoff value will be the minimum downgrade probability among the fifteen percent of all small insured institutions in Risk Category I (excluding new institutions) with the highest estimated downgrade probabilities, computed using values of the risk measures as of June 30, 2008. The maximum downgrade probability cutoff value is 0.1506.
IV. Derivation of Uniform Amount and Pricing Multipliers
The uniform amount and pricing multipliers used to compute the annual base assessment rate in basis points, PiT, for any such institution i at a given time T will be determined from the Statistical Model, the minimum and maximum downgrade probability cutoff values, and minimum and maximum initial base assessment rates in Risk Category I as follows:
Equation 4
PiT = α0 + α1 * diT subject to Min ≤PiT ≤Min + 4
where α0 and α1 are a constant term and a scale factor used to convert diT (the estimated downgrade probability for institution i at a given time T from the Statistical Model) to an assessment rate, respectively, and Min is the minimum initial base assessment rate expressed in basis points. (PiT is expressed as an annual rate, but the actual rate applied in any quarter will be PiT/4.) The maximum initial base assessment rate is 4 basis points above the minimum (Min + 4)
Solving equation 4 for minimum and maximum initial base assessment rates simultaneously,
Min = α0 + α1 * 0.0182 and Min + 4 = α0 + α1 * 0.1506
where 0.0182 is the minimum downgrade probability cutoff value and 0.1506 is the maximum downgrade probability cutoff value, results in values for the constant amount, α0 and the scale factor, α1:
Equation 5
and Equation 6
Substituting equations 3, 5 and 6 into equation 4 produces an annual initial base assessment rate for institution i at time T, PiT, in terms of the uniform amount, the pricing multipliers and the ratios and weighted average CAMELS component rating referred to in 12 CFR 327.9(d)(2)(i):
Equation 7
PiT = [(Min − 0.550) + 30.211* β0] + 30.211 * [β1 (Leverage ratioT)] + 30.211 * [β2 (Loans past due 30 to 89 days ratioT)] + 30.211 * [β3 (Nonperforming asset ratioT)] + 30.211 * [β4 (Net loan charge-off ratioT)] + 30.211 * [β5 (Net income before taxes ratioT)] + 30.211 * [β6 (Adjusted brokered deposit ratioT)] + 30.211 * [β7 (Weighted average CAMELS component ratingT)]
again subject to Min ≤PiT ≤Min + 4
where (Min − 0.550) + 30.211 * β0 equals the uniform amount, 30.211 * βj is a pricing multiplier for the associated risk measure j, and T is the date of the report of condition corresponding to the end of the quarter for which the assessment rate is computed.
V. Updating the Statistical Model, Uniform Amount, and Pricing Multipliers
The initial Statistical Model is estimated using year-end financial ratios and the weighted average of the “C,” “A,” “M,” “E” and “L” component ratings over the 1988 to 2006 period and downgrade data from the 1989 to 2007 period. The FDIC may, from time to time, but no more frequently than annually, re-estimate the Statistical Model with updated data and publish a new formula for determining initial base assessment rates—equation 7—based on updated uniform amounts and pricing multipliers. However, the minimum and maximum downgrade probability cutoff values will not change without additional notice-and-comment rulemaking. The period covered by the analysis will be lengthened by one year each year; however, from time to time, the FDIC may drop some earlier years from its analysis.
VI. Description of Scorecard Measures
| Scorecard measures1 | Description |
|---|---|
| Leverage ratio | Tier 1 capital for Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) divided by adjusted average assets based on the definition for prompt corrective action. |
| Concentration Measure for Large Insured depository institutions (excluding Highly Complex Institutions) | The concentration score for large institutions is the higher of the following two scores: |
| (1) Higher-Risk Assets/Tier 1 Capital and Reserves | Sum of construction and land development (C&D) loans (funded and unfunded), higher-risk C&I loans (funded and unfunded), nontraditional mortgages, higher-risk consumer loans, and higher-risk securitizations divided by Tier 1 capital and reserves. See Appendix C for the detailed description of the ratio. |
| (2) Growth-Adjusted Portfolio Concentrations | The measure is calculated in the following steps: |
| (1) Concentration levels (as a ratio to Tier 1 capital and reserves) are calculated for each broad portfolio category: | |
| • C&D, | |
| • Other commercial real estate loans, | |
| • First lien residential mortgages (including non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities), | |
| • Closed-end junior liens and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), | |
| • Commercial and industrial loans, | |
| • Credit card loans, and | |
| • Cther consumer loans. | |
| (2) Risk weights are assigned to each loan category based on historical loss rates. | |
| (3) Concentration levels are multiplied by risk weights and squared to produce a risk-adjusted concentration ratio for each portfolio. | |
| (4) Three-year merger-adjusted portfolio growth rates are then scaled to a growth factor of 1 to 1.2 where a 3-year cumulative growth rate of 20 percent or less equals a factor of 1 and a growth rate of 80 percent or greater equals a factor of 1.2. If three years of data are not available, a growth factor of 1 will be assigned. | |
| (5) The risk-adjusted concentration ratio for each portfolio is multiplied by the growth factor and resulting values are summed. | |
| See Appendix C for the detailed description of the measure. | |
| Concentration Measure for Highly Complex Institutions | Concentration score for highly complex institutions is the highest of the following three scores: |
| (1) Higher-Risk Assets/Tier 1 Capital and Reserves | Sum of C&D loans (funded and unfunded), higher-risk C&I loans (funded and unfunded), nontraditional mortgages, higher-risk consumer loans, and higher-risk securitizations divided by Tier 1 capital and reserves. See Appendix C for the detailed description of the measure. |
| (2) Top 20 Counterparty Exposure/Tier 1 Capital and Reserves | Sum of the 20 largest total exposure amounts to counterparties divided by Tier 1 capital and reserves. The total exposure amount is equal to the sum of the institution's exposure amounts to one counterparty (or borrower) for derivatives, securities financing transactions (SFTs), and cleared transactions, and its gross lending exposure (including all unfunded commitments) to that counterparty (or borrower). A counterparty includes an entity's own affiliates. Exposures to entities that are affiliates of each other are treated as exposures to one counterparty (or borrower). Counterparty exposure excludes all counterparty exposure to the U.S. Government and departments or agencies of the U.S. Government that is unconditionally guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States. The exposure amount for derivatives, including OTC derivatives, cleared transactions that are derivative contracts, and netting sets of derivative contracts, must be calculated using the methodology set forth in 12 CFR 324.34(b), but without any reduction for collateral other than cash collateral that is all or part of variation margin and that satisfies the requirements of 12 CFR 324.10(c)(4)(ii)(C)(1)(ii) and (iii) and 324.10(c)(4)(ii)(C)(3) through (7). The exposure amount associated with SFTs, including cleared transactions that are SFTs, must be calculated using the standardized approach set forth in 12 CFR 324.37(b) or (c). For both derivatives and SFT exposures, the exposure amount to central counterparties must also include the default fund contribution.2 |
| (3) Largest Counterparty Exposure/Tier 1 Capital and Reserves | The largest total exposure amount to one counterparty divided by Tier 1 capital and reserves. The total exposure amount is equal to the sum of the institution's exposure amounts to one counterparty (or borrower) for derivatives, SFTs, and cleared transactions, and its gross lending exposure (including all unfunded commitments) to that counterparty (or borrower). A counterparty includes an entity's own affiliates. Exposures to entities that are affiliates of each other are treated as exposures to one counterparty (or borrower). Counterparty exposure excludes all counterparty exposure to the U.S. Government and departments or agencies of the U.S. Government that is unconditionally guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States. The exposure amount for derivatives, including OTC derivatives, cleared transactions that are derivative contracts, and netting sets of derivative contracts, must be calculated using the methodology set forth in 12 CFR 324.34(b), but without any reduction for collateral other than cash collateral that is all or part of variation margin and that satisfies the requirements of 12 CFR 324.10(c)(4)(ii)(C)(1)(ii) and (iii) and 324.10(c)(4)(ii)(C)(3) through (7). The exposure amount associated with SFTs, including cleared transactions that are SFTs, must be calculated using the standardized approach set forth in 12 CFR 324.37(b) or (c). For both derivatives and SFT exposures, the exposure amount to central counterparties must also include the default fund contribution.2 |
| Core Earnings/Average Quarter-End Total Assets | Core earnings are defined as net income less extraordinary items and tax-adjusted realized gains and losses on available-for-sale (AFS) and held-to-maturity (HTM) securities, adjusted for mergers. The ratio takes a four-quarter sum of merger-adjusted core earnings and divides it by an average of five quarter-end total assets (most recent and four prior quarters). If four quarters of data on core earnings are not available, data for quarters that are available will be added and annualized. If five quarters of data on total assets are not available, data for quarters that are available will be averaged. |
| Credit Quality Measure | The credit quality score is the higher of the following two scores: |
| (1) Criticized and Classified Items/Tier 1 Capital and Reserves | Sum of criticized and classified items divided by the sum of Tier 1 capital and reserves. Criticized and classified items include items an institution or its primary federal regulator have graded “Special Mention” or worse and include retail items under Uniform Retail Classification Guidelines, securities, funded and unfunded loans, other real estate owned (ORE), other assets, and marked-to-market counterparty positions, less credit valuation adjustments.3 Criticized and classified items exclude loans and securities in trading books, and the amount recoverable from the U.S. government, its agencies, or government-sponsored enterprises, under guarantee or insurance provisions. |
| (2) Underperforming Assets/Tier 1 Capital and Reserves | Sum of loans that are 30 days or more past due and still accruing interest, nonaccrual loans, restructured loans (including restructured 1-4 family loans), and ORE, excluding the maximum amount recoverable from the U.S. government, its agencies, or government-sponsored enterprises, under guarantee or insurance provisions, divided by a sum of Tier 1 capital and reserves. |
| Core Deposits/Total Liabilities | Total domestic deposits excluding brokered deposits and uninsured non-brokered time deposits divided by total liabilities. |
| Balance Sheet Liquidity Ratio | Sum of cash and balances due from depository institutions, federal funds sold and securities purchased under agreements to resell, and the market value of available for sale and held to maturity agency securities (excludes agency mortgage-backed securities but includes all other agency securities issued by the U.S. Treasury, U.S. government agencies, and U.S. government-sponsored enterprises) divided by the sum of federal funds purchased and repurchase agreements, other borrowings (including FHLB) with a remaining maturity of one year or less, 5 percent of insured domestic deposits, and 10 percent of uninsured domestic and foreign deposits.4 |
| Potential Losses/Total Domestic Deposits (Loss Severity Measure) | Potential losses to the DIF in the event of failure divided by total domestic deposits. Appendix D describes the calculation of the loss severity measure in detail. |
| Market Risk Measure for Highly Complex Institutions | The market risk score is a weighted average of the following three scores: |
| (1) Trading Revenue Volatility/Tier 1 Capital | Trailing 4-quarter standard deviation of quarterly trading revenue (merger-adjusted) divided by Tier 1 capital. |
| (2) Market Risk Capital/Tier 1 Capital | Market risk capital divided by Tier 1 capital.5 |
| (3) Level 3 Trading Assets/Tier 1 Capital | Level 3 trading assets divided by Tier 1 capital. |
| Average Short-term Funding/Average Total Assets | Quarterly average of federal funds purchased and repurchase agreements divided by the quarterly average of total assets as reported on Schedule RC-K of the Call Reports |
1The FDIC retains the flexibility, as part of the risk-based assessment system, without the necessity of additional notice-and-comment rulemaking, to update the minimum and maximum cutoff values for all measures used in the scorecard. The FDIC may update the minimum and maximum cutoff values for the higher-risk assets to Tier 1 capital and reserves ratio in order to maintain an approximately similar distribution of higher-risk assets to Tier 1 capital and reserves ratio scores as reported prior to April 1, 2013, or to avoid changing the overall amount of assessment revenue collected. 76 FR 10672, 10700 (February 25, 2011). The FDIC will review changes in the distribution of the higher-risk assets to Tier 1 capital and reserves ratio scores and the resulting effect on total assessments and risk differentiation between banks when determining changes to the cutoffs. The FDIC may update the cutoff values for the higher-risk assets to Tier 1 capital and reserves ratio more frequently than annually. The FDIC will provide banks with a minimum one quarter advance notice of changes in the cutoff values for the higher-risk assets to Tier 1 capital and reserves ratio with their quarterly deposit insurance invoice.
2SFTs include repurchase agreements, reverse repurchase agreements, security lending and borrowing, and margin lending transactions, where the value, of the transactions depends on market valuations and the transactions are often subject to margin agreements. The default fund contribution is the funds contributed or commitments made by a clearing member to a central counterparty's mutualized loss sharing arrangement. The other terms used in this description are as defined in 12 CFR part 324, subparts A and D, unless defined otherwise in 12 CFR part 327.
3A marked-to-market counterparty position is equal to the sum of the net marked-to-market derivative exposures for each counterparty. The net marked-to-market derivative exposure equals the sum of all positive marked-to-market exposures net of legally enforceable netting provisions and net of all collateral held under a legally enforceable CSA plus any exposure where excess collateral has been posted to the counterparty. For purposes of the Criticized and Classified Items/Tier 1 Capital and Reserves definition a marked-to-market counterparty position less any credit valuation adjustment can never be less than zero.
4Deposit runoff rates for the balance sheet liquidity ratio reflect changes issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in its December 2010 document, “Basel III: International Framework for liquidity risk measurement, standards, and monitoring,” http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs188.pdf.
5Market risk is defined in 12 CFR 324.202.
[74 FR 9557, Mar. 4, 2009, as amended at 76 FR 10720, Feb. 25, 2011; 76 FR 17521, Mar. 30, 2011; 77 FR 66015, Oct. 31, 2012; 78 FR 55904, Sept. 10, 2013; 79 FR 70437, Nov. 26, 2014; 83 FR 17740, Apr. 24, 2018; 85 FR 4443, Jan. 24, 2020; 85 FR 71228, Nov. 9, 2020]
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