(a) Compliance assessments shall consider and document uncertainty in the performance of the disposal system.

(b) Probability distributions for uncertain disposal system parameter values used in compliance assessments shall be developed and documented in any compliance application.

(c) Computational techniques which draw random samples from across the entire range of values of each probability distribution developed pursuant to paragraph (b) of this section shall be used to generate a range of:

(1) Estimated committed effective doses received from all pathways pursuant to §194.51 and §194.52;

(2) Estimated radionuclide concentrations in USDWs pursuant to §194.53; and

(3) Estimated dose equivalent received from USDWs pursuant to §194.52 and §194.53.

(d) The number of estimates generated pursuant to paragraph (c) of this section shall be large enough such that the maximum estimates of doses and concentrations generated exceed the 99th percentile of the population of estimates with at least a 0.95 probability.

(e) Any compliance application shall display:

(1) The full range of estimated radiation doses; and

(2) The full range of estimated radionuclide concentrations.

(f) Any compliance application shall document that there is at least a 95 percent level of statistical confidence that the mean and the median of the range of estimated radiation doses and the range of estimated radionuclide concentrations meet the requirements of §191.15 and part 191, subpart C of this chapter, respectively.